Risk intelligence (16/03/2021) - India
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COVID-19 - RESURGENCE IN INDIA
India’s active COVID-19 caseload has been rising again over the last fortnight and has left health experts wondering whether the second wave of outbreak has already set in amid the country-wide vaccination drive.
India recorded the highest single-day jump in fresh infection number in nearly three months on Monday, 15 March - 26,291 new patients were added to the country’s tally over a period of 24 hours till 0800hrs, and 24,492 more over the next 24 hours.
The country has also reported a 33% rise in fresh COVID-19 cases on a week-to-week basis from 8-15 March.
Several states, especially where the caseloads are rising again, have been considering measures such as area-specific lockdown or night curfew. Experts are of the opinion that imposing blanket restrictions may not be the answer to the evolving situation this time.
The local governments and administrative agencies need to formulate a strategy to strengthen surveillance and contact tracing, which are expected to supplement the Vaccination drive that is now the second largest in the world, after the USA.
The importance of mass awareness drives on COVID-19 safety measures by using conventional as well as new media cannot be undermined either, because the spread of the viral infection could be arrested only when people from all walks of life ensure the basic safety measures which involve use of face masks, frequent hand sanitisation, and physical distancing.
COVID-19 cases have been rising mainly in Maharashtra and Punjab, while the active caseload number remains high also in Kerala - the southern state that earned international praise for pandemic handling in the early days of the outbreak last year. Apart from Delhi, caseloads have been rising also in Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and West Bengal.
Government statistics indicate that despite a surge in active cases, the fatality rate has been declining in India. The trend probably hints at the possibility that the virus strain/s circulating currently has/have turned less virulent than the earlier one. India’s overall case fatality ratio (CFR) - the number of deaths per 1,000 infected people - is around 1.4%, but the ratio is hovering around 0.87% among those infected since January 2021.
The country’s medical response system to the pandemic has also become organised over the last one year, while the arrival of vaccines has been another positive development though there remain some concerns over the possibility of AEFI (adverse effects following immunisation).
COVID-19 has been primarily a droplet-borne infection, which may spread rapidly during the Holi - the festival of colours to be celebrated on Monday, 29 March. Health experts have been warning about the possibility while government authorities may impose strict restrictions on/around the festival, which is marked by public congregations in houses and open places, if the transmission rate does not come down significantly.
Media have reported violation of COVID-19 protocols also in the four states, where legislative assembly elections are in the offing. Political rallies and processions by various parties are attracting large crowds, but often the attendees don’t wear face masks, or they don’t wear it properly, while measures like physical distancing and temperature screening are ignored.
Experts fear that the four poll-bound states - West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu and Kerala, and also the union territory of Puducherry, may report a sharp increase in COVID-19 numbers following the elections.
India’s approach towards the COVID-19 resurgence may get a clear directional push on Wednesday, 17 March when Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to discuss the issue with chief ministers. Meanwhile, the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) has announced that passengers, who don’t wear face masks properly and don’t follow physical distancing norms, could be de-boarded or even be barred from flying for at least 90 days.
The airport authorities and the Central Industrial Security Force (CISF) staff would treat the flyers, who show stubborn reluctance to COVID-19 safety measures, as unruly passengers. The DGCA circular comes after the Delhi High Court took suo motu cognisance on the basis of COVID-19 safety protocol violation by passengers on a Kolkata-New Delhi Air India flight on 5 March.